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Writer's pictureJoe Carter

Impact and Probability of Success

Updated: Feb 3, 2022



CONTEXT: Both the development of a business-level strategy and an enterprise value stream analysis require projects that need to be prioritized with a formal methodology.


Business-Level Strategy Development


Enterprise Value Stream Map Development


CURRENT SITUATION: Many clients do not utilize a formal method to prioritize their strategic and / or tactical projects. We present them with two team-based prioritization methods to consider:


- Impact / Probability of Success

- Criteria Decision-Making


IMPACT / PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS METHOD:

This method assesses the IMPACT (low, medium, or high) for each potential project on their stated business goals and objectives (financial and non-financial). It also assesses the PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS (low, medium, or high) for each potential project should they choose to implement it.


INPUTS REQUIRED:

- S.M.A.R.T. business goals and objectives

- Financial impact assessment ranges (low = from $AAA to $BBB, Medium = from $CCC to $DDD, High = above $DDD)

- 3 – 5 project suggestions from each session participant


METHOD STEPS:

- Confirm S.M.A.R.T. business goals and objectives

- Each team member reviews their project suggestions ...

  • Name of the project

  • Description and scope of the project

  • Driver – why this project is important

  • Enablers – what we have in place today that will help us

  • Range of potential financial impact for each project

  • Most significant risks

  • NOTE: the most effective way of completing this step is to require each team member to bring 3 – 5 project suggestions to the session

- Review each project with the other team members

- Team discusses each project – the goal is to understand, not to refute

- Team agrees on the IMPACT rating (low, medium, or high) and the PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS (low, medium, or high) for each project

- Place post-it-note for each project on the IMPACT / PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS chart

- Identify 3 – 5 HIGH-IMPACT / HIGH PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS projects

- Complete a “sanity-check”

- Complete an After-Action Review:

  • What was supposed to happen? What actually happened?

  • What went well? Why?

  • What did not go as well as it could have? Why?

  • What would we do differently next time to improve our effectiveness? Why?

- Identify next steps with accountability – including a communication plan


OUTPUTS CREATED:

- All potential projects prioritized

- Top 3 – 5 projects identified

- After-Action Review completed

- Next steps identified – including accountability for communication throughout the organization


We’ve helped and transferred the knowledge for how to use the IMPACT / PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS METHOD to numerous clients located throughout North America and Europe - with great success. Our clients learned how to use the method and they enjoy applying it. In another post we will review the CRITERIA DECISION METHOD – another outstanding project prioritization tool to consider.

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